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The use of anti-obesity drugs is soaring and the social and business fallout could be far-reaching. Globally, obesity rates have more than doubled in the past three decades, creating a market for weight-loss drugs that Goldman Sachs says could grow to $130bn by 2030.
In the US, the adult obesity rate dropped 2 percentage points between 2020 and 2023 as take up of the medicines grew. A 2023 JPMorgan report estimated that the number of US patients taking the drugs could reach 30mn, or nearly 9 per cent of the total population, by 2030. That trend will potentially affect many industries.
A 2023 study from Morgan Stanley found that 77 per cent of US patients using weight-loss drugs visited fast food restaurants less frequently, reflecting their reduced appetites. Last year food giant Nestlé launched a product line aimed at those on anti-obesity medication, rich in protein, iron, and other essential nutrients.
The gym industry is another facing disruption. Studies suggest some weight-loss drugs can cause muscle wastage and other side effects, including nausea and intestinal distress. This can make high impact cardio activities uncomfortable. That could boost the increased demand already seen in some gyms for strength training equipment and sessions to build muscle rather than cardio-focused workouts.
In the fashion industry, sales of large women's button-down shirts fell 11 per cent between 2022 and 2024, according to a recent US study. By contrast, sales of the smallest shirts grew 12 per cent over the same period.
Widespread use of anti-obesity drugs could even affect a nation's economic performance. According to a 2019 OECD study across member nations, obesity threatened to curb GDP by an estimated 3.3 per cent on average, thanks to missed workdays and lost productivity.
A 2024 Goldman Sachs report estimated that if 30mn Americans were taking anti-obesity drugs, it could boost US GDP by between 0.2 and 0.8 per cent, depending on efficacy.
Some critics argue the uptake of weight-loss drugs is masking the true causes of obesity, such as poor diet and a lack of physical activity, but their rising popularity means the drugs' impact will continue to grow.
